Apple reported its 2017Q2 (Q3 by Apple’s calendar) results yesterday, and many analysts were surprised by the very strong iPad sales which were 14% YoY by shipments.
However, this was pretty close to a prediction that I had made in December last year, even before the new, cheaper iPad and the 10.5 inch iPad Pro had been announced. I had said
Since 2017 is still the early phase of “productivity” segment adoption, it might yet be a bit early to see a strong impact in 2017Q1 and Q2. However, I do expect 2017Q3 to show a significant effect. 2017Q4 will be less impressive due to the “entertainment” segment dominating during the holiday season.
This is very much in line with the results that were announced, although the positive results came in a quarter early, most likely due to the cheaper iPad which I did not know of when I made the prediction.
As for reasons behind the sales increase, Apple put enterprise sales first and education sales second. Although they did not give any quantitative contribution data from each market segment, this aligns with my prediction that the revival of sales will be “productivity” driven.
With this successful prediction under my belt, I am quite confident giving predictions for the next two quarters. 2017Q3 will also be very strong YoY with growth possibly in the 20% range. Again, “productivity” will be what drives the growth. As for 2017Q4, there will still likely be good growth but not as significant as the preceding two quarters. I expect single digit or low double digit growth for this quarter. This is driven by the large “entertainment” iPad sales during the holidays, which I expect are still decreasing YoY and which will dampen the growth from the “productivity” sector.
Overall, my thesis that we are witnessing a long term revival of the iPad has been strongly enforced. Some analysts seem to think that the strong sales for this quarter are a one-time effect due to the introduction of the lower cost iPad. However, I expect strong growth to continue, proving these explanations to be false.