We now have some early statistics on iPhone SE sales in Japan from BCN Ranking. Note that BCN Ranking only provides data from their partners, which include Amazon and major retail outlets, but does not include the Apple Store for example. Also note that the current data is for the March 28th to April 3rd time period whereas the iPhone SE was only released on March 31st.
For clarity, I am only listing iPhones, and I am listing by carrier.
The interesting observation is that unlike the iPhone 6s where the 64GB model sells better than the 16GB model on all carriers, the reverse is true for the iPhone SE; on all carriers, the 16GB iPhone SE model sells better than the 64GB model. This suggests that iPhone SE users intend to use their phones more casually, and are more driven by price. Importantly, we have to understand that the data is only for the opening weekend which is typically skewed towards early adopters, who we would expect to prefer higher capacity models. It seems that the trend for iPhone SE users to be casual owners might be very strong.
Of course, we do not know the product mix of the items in stock, so this might simply be a result of inventory skew. However, assuming that this trend holds true, then we can make the following tentative conclusions;
- The iPhone SE appeals more to users who are more considerate of price, and who do not intend to use their smartphones very heavily.
- These users would typically only replace their current smartphones after they have completed their 2-year contract. A strong opening day turnout of this segment suggests that these users were holding onto old phones (either old iPhones or Androids).
This is an interesting dynamic.
As we get more data, we should be able to make an assessment of the popularity of the iPhone SE relative to other iPhone models and to Android phones. Given that the majority of smartphone users are not techies nor social media junkies but plain ordinary citizens, I tentatively expect quite strong performance.
Update
The data for the first full week of sales in Japan (Apr-4 to Apr10) are now available on BCN Ranking, and I have used the new data to plot a chart.
We see the same trend as the opening weekend that I previously discussed in the above post. However, with the improved visualisation, we can see some additional points.
- The 16G iPhone 6s actually sells quite well on all carriers. Techies have ridiculed the 16G model as not having nearly enough capacity. While that may be true in use, many of the people who purchase even the flagship model do not seem to care. However, users of the iPhone 6s Plus model do seem less eager to purchase the 16G model.
- The iPhone SE clearly skews heavily towards the 16G model, and as I have said in the above article, this suggests that current iPhone SE buyers are more price conscious, and do not seem to be heavy users of smartphones. The new chart shows that this trend mirrors that of the iPhone 6. Hence it looks like the segment that purchased the one-year-old iPhone 6, is similar to the segment that has purchased the iPhone SE so far.
Considering that the iPhone SE (16G: ¥52,800) is significantly cheaper that the one-year-old iPhone 6 (16G: ¥74,800) and that both are probably attracting the same price conscious buyers, we can expect iPhone 6 sales to rapidly decline and be picked up the the iPhone SE. Of course we can also expect an acceleration of Android users switching to iOS.
Naofumi Kagami 